INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
  2017 2018 2019
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4* Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
CANADA                  
Overnight Target Rate  0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00
3-mth T-Bill Rate  0.52 0.71 1.00 0.90 1.25 1.38 1.50 1.63 1.75 1.88 2.00 2.13
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.75 1.09 1.52 1.50 1.65 1.80 1.95 2.10 2.25 2.35 2.40 2.45
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.12 1.38 1.75 1.65 1.85 2.00 2.15 2.25 2.35 2.45 2.55 2.65
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.63 1.75 2.10 1.84 2.10 2.30 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.31 2.13 2.47 2.16 2.45 2.65 2.80 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.15
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.88 0.66 0.58 0.34 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.35
U.S.                 
Fed Funds Target Rate  1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate  0.76 1.03 1.06 1.28 1.48 1.60 1.73 1.85 2.03 2.28 2.53 2.65
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.27 1.38 1.47 1.78 1.90 2.05 2.20 2.35 2.50 2.60 2.65 2.70
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.93 1.89 1.92 2.11 2.35 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.75 2.85 2.85 2.85
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.40 2.31 2.33 2.35 2.60 2.75 2.85 2.95 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.02 2.84 2.86 2.73 2.95 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 1.13 0.93 0.86 0.57 0.70 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.35 0.30
CANADA - U.S SPREADS                        
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread -0.24 -0.32 -0.06 -0.37 -0.23 -0.22 -0.23 -0.22 -0.28 -0.40 -0.53 -0.52
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread -0.77 -0.56 -0.23 -0.50 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at December 2017. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at December 13, 2017.