Forecasts
November 27, 2024
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
Investors must feel like 2024 has given them whiplash, as expectations for interest rates turn on a dime from one quarter to the next. The Trump trade is the latest catalyst, as the incoming administration's policies are perceived as inflationary, leading markets, and ourselves, to reduce the number of fed rate cuts expected.
September 25, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to remain above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2024, before normalizing closer to a trend pace in 2025. Even so, the unemployment rate is expected to edge a bit higher by year-end (reaching 4.3%), before gradually returning to its long-run average of 4% by the first half of 2026.
September 20, 2024
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy has continued to expand at a stable pace in 2024. The Middle Atlantic economy has begun to pick-up the pace, led by a modest rebound in New York. The Upper South Atlantic region's economy is estimated to grow by 2.4% this year – a touch below the national rate. The Lower South Atlantic region's economy continues to outperform, with growth of 3.4% on tap for this year, well ahead of the 2.6% pace nationally.
August 26, 2024
Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!
The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate – developments in the job market – to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts.
