| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 21 | 22F | 23F | 21 | 22F | 23F | |
| Real GDP | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 11.4 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Durable Goods | 50.0 | 11.6 | -24.6 | 2.7 | 8.5 | -3.4 | -7.2 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 18.1 | -2.0 | 0.2 | 6.7 | -1.0 | 3.0 |
| Business Investment | 12.9 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 5.4 | -3.0 | -4.1 | -9.4 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -8.1 | -1.6 | 3.5 | -2.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 14.8 | 12.3 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.4 |
| Residential Investment | 13.3 | -11.7 | -7.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | -2.0 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 9.1 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 4.2 | -2.0 | 0.9 | -2.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 10.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Exports | -2.9 | 7.6 | -5.3 | 23.6 | -0.8 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Imports | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 17.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.4 | -1.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | -88.3 | -168.5 | -66.8 | 171.2 | 116.4 | 117.4 | 130.5 | 135.6 | 131.3 | 128.0 | 121.5 | 115.3 | -38.1 | 125.0 | 124.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 9.1 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -758 | -793 | -859 | -841 | -935 | -935 | -884 | -808 | -750 | -715 | -694 | -677 | -813 | -890 | -709 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.4 | -3.5 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | 22.0 | 49.1 | 14.5 | -7.7 | -3.9 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 24.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 17.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| % of GDP | 11.6 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| Nominal GDP | 10.9 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 14.6 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Labor Force | -0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Employment | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 1262 | 1453 | 1695 | 1759 | 1790 | 938 | 756 | 738 | 629 | 340 | 242 | 199 | 3957 | 5586 | 2221 | 6169 | 4222 | 1410 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 60.6 | -24.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 20.5 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 6.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 1.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.56 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.59 | 1.56 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.56 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 3.8 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 1.8 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2022. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||