| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 21 | 22F | 23F | 21 | 22F | 23F | |
| Real GDP | 4.8 | -3.6 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.9 | -1.0 | 20.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Durable Goods | -1.3 | -11.8 | -8.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -5.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Business Investment | 1.3 | 12.7 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 15.7 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -10.9 | 16.5 | -1.7 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| Residential Investment | 43.2 | -11.0 | -31.0 | 10.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 15.4 | -2.6 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 8.1 | -2.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 6.6 | -1.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| Exports | 1.9 | -16.7 | 7.1 | 13.4 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 2.4 |
| Imports | 4.9 | 2.8 | -1.6 | 14.4 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.4 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | -3.4 | 14.4 | -3.5 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 13.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 8.2 | -5.2 | 11.2 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | -3.2 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 7.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | 93.6 | -2.7 | -26.7 | 25.0 | 24.1 | 25.6 | -7.9 | -0.3 | -5.2 | -3.6 | -2.2 | -1.3 | 32.7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 14.6 | 9.4 | -3.1 |
| % of GDP | 16.1 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 14.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 6.1 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Nominal GDP | 19.1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 4.4 |
| Labour Force | -0.9 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Employment | 1.5 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 67 | 114 | 310 | 289 | 138 | 189 | 84 | 45 | 36 | 32 | 29 | 23 | 867 | 733 | 203 | 779 | 457 | 120 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 13.7 | 4.8 | -1.8 | -5.1 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 13.7 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 4.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 304 | 279 | 262 | 261 | 237 | 235 | 229 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 277 | 231 | 220 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | 25.6 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 19.4 | 18.6 | 19.1 | 15.5 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 22.5 | 15.6 | 1.0 | 19.4 | 9.6 | 1.1 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 1.5 | -0.3 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2022. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||