Interest Rate Outlook | ||||||||||||
Interest Rates | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Fed Funds Target Rate | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 0.80 | 1.05 | 1.30 | 1.55 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.55 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.55 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.05 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 1.74 | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.25 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.41 | 2.06 | 1.90 | 2.15 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.60 | 2.55 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | 1.58 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.35 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.35 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2021. All forecasts are end-of-period. | ||||||||||||
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. |