U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
Economic Indicators |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
21F |
22F |
23F |
21F |
22F |
23F |
Real GDP |
6.3 |
6.6 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
5.2 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
11.4 |
11.9 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
7.7 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
Durable Goods |
50.0 |
11.3 |
-24.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
18.0 |
-2.4 |
1.1 |
6.2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
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Business Investment |
12.9 |
9.3 |
0.9 |
8.7 |
6.5 |
5.8 |
5.0 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
7.7 |
5.9 |
4.1 |
7.9 |
5.4 |
3.6 |
Non-Res. Structures |
5.4 |
-5.4 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
-7.1 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
Equipment & IPP* |
14.8 |
13.0 |
0.7 |
10.5 |
7.8 |
7.1 |
6.0 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
11.7 |
7.2 |
4.7 |
9.6 |
6.5 |
3.8 |
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Residential Investment |
13.3 |
-11.5 |
-7.9 |
-4.2 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
8.8 |
-2.7 |
0.1 |
-3.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Govt. Expenditure |
4.2 |
-1.9 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
Final Domestic Demand |
10.4 |
7.9 |
0.6 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
6.5 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
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Exports |
-2.9 |
6.6 |
4.1 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
7.3 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
7.5 |
6.2 |
Imports |
9.3 |
6.7 |
-1.0 |
0.8 |
6.9 |
7.2 |
6.0 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
12.0 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
3.9 |
6.4 |
4.4 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
-88.3 |
-169.4 |
-75.0 |
-29.4 |
38.6 |
86.8 |
116.6 |
126.0 |
131.5 |
132.6 |
134.1 |
132.6 |
-90.5 |
92.0 |
132.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
9.1 |
7.9 |
1.2 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-783 |
-763 |
-712 |
-625 |
-637 |
-666 |
-680 |
-684 |
-681 |
-670 |
-655 |
-634 |
-721 |
-667 |
-660 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.6 |
-3.4 |
-3.1 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.4 |
-3.1 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
22.0 |
42.2 |
-17.2 |
7.8 |
10.8 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
-1.5 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
19.2 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
11.5 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
% of GDP |
11.6 |
12.3 |
11.4 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
11.4 |
11.3 |
11.1 |
11.0 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
11.7 |
11.3 |
10.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.1 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
4.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
Nominal GDP |
10.9 |
13.2 |
9.2 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
9.7 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
10.4 |
5.9 |
4.5 |
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Labor Force |
-0.7 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
Employment |
2.1 |
4.8 |
6.1 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
3.7 |
1.6 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
736 |
1701 |
2174 |
1296 |
1268 |
1245 |
1097 |
808 |
490 |
416 |
317 |
271 |
3789 |
5437 |
2494 |
5907 |
4418 |
1494 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.2 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
5.6 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
60.6 |
-26.5 |
-2.4 |
-2.8 |
1.7 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
-0.4 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
20.5 |
10.3 |
8.5 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
11.5 |
6.1 |
6.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.9 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
1.4 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.60 |
1.59 |
1.55 |
1.53 |
1.51 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.49 |
1.49 |
1.49 |
1.48 |
1.48 |
1.57 |
1.50 |
1.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
4.1 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2021. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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