Interest Rate Outlook | ||||||||||||
Interest Rates | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Fed Funds Target Rate | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 0.37 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 1.35 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.65 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.35 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at
March 2021. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. |