U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
Economic Indicators |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
20 |
21F |
22F |
20 |
21F |
22F |
Real GDP |
-5.0 |
-31.4 |
33.4 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
6.8 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
-3.5 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
-2.4 |
6.0 |
2.9 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
-6.9 |
-33.2 |
41.0 |
2.4 |
4.7 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
-3.9 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
-2.6 |
6.1 |
3.8 |
Durable Goods |
-12.5 |
-1.7 |
82.7 |
-0.6 |
18.1 |
-4.4 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
6.4 |
12.0 |
3.4 |
11.8 |
5.7 |
3.4 |
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Business Investment |
-6.7 |
-27.2 |
22.9 |
14.0 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
7.3 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
-4.0 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
-1.2 |
6.6 |
5.0 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-3.7 |
-33.6 |
-17.4 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
7.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
-10.6 |
-2.8 |
1.2 |
-14.5 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-7.5 |
-25.2 |
36.6 |
17.4 |
8.5 |
4.9 |
9.2 |
7.8 |
7.0 |
6.1 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
-2.0 |
10.0 |
6.8 |
2.6 |
7.6 |
5.7 |
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Residential Investment |
19.0 |
-35.5 |
63.0 |
35.8 |
18.9 |
6.9 |
-0.7 |
-3.4 |
-4.4 |
-4.7 |
-2.9 |
-2.6 |
6.0 |
15.2 |
-2.9 |
14.1 |
5.1 |
-3.7 |
Govt. Expenditure |
1.3 |
2.5 |
-4.8 |
-1.1 |
8.6 |
6.9 |
0.2 |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
-2.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
1.1 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
-0.6 |
3.7 |
-0.6 |
Final Domestic Demand |
-4.6 |
-27.1 |
29.8 |
4.4 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
-2.7 |
5.9 |
3.9 |
-1.5 |
5.7 |
2.8 |
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Exports |
-9.5 |
-64.4 |
59.6 |
21.8 |
6.4 |
8.0 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
7.8 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
-13.0 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
-11.0 |
7.7 |
5.8 |
Imports |
-15.0 |
-54.1 |
93.0 |
29.6 |
11.6 |
9.9 |
9.0 |
9.1 |
5.5 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
-9.3 |
15.1 |
5.7 |
-0.6 |
9.9 |
3.1 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
-80.9 |
-287.0 |
-3.7 |
48.0 |
16.7 |
52.9 |
121.6 |
159.9 |
167.6 |
158.5 |
141.5 |
122.6 |
-80.9 |
87.8 |
147.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-3.6 |
-28.1 |
25.9 |
3.0 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
-2.9 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
-2.7 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-446 |
-645 |
-714 |
-753 |
-771 |
-818 |
-833 |
-848 |
-846 |
-826 |
-801 |
-773 |
-640 |
-818 |
-812 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.1 |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.7 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.4 |
-3.3 |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
-3.6 |
-3.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
-39.9 |
-35.2 |
163.1 |
-37.1 |
20.4 |
49.9 |
3.3 |
-8.2 |
9.0 |
5.2 |
3.3 |
0.4 |
-8.3 |
13.3 |
4.9 |
-10.4 |
14.4 |
4.4 |
% of GDP |
9.4 |
9.4 |
11.0 |
9.6 |
9.9 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.2 |
10.2 |
10.2 |
10.2 |
10.1 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
10.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.7 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
Nominal GDP |
-3.4 |
-32.8 |
38.4 |
6.1 |
8.4 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
-2.3 |
8.2 |
6.7 |
-1.2 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
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Labor Force |
-1.4 |
-13.2 |
5.6 |
0.7 |
-0.8 |
4.7 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
-1.7 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
-2.3 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
Employment |
0.3 |
-40.0 |
23.3 |
5.1 |
1.3 |
6.3 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
-5.7 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
-6.0 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
132 |
-18201 |
7195 |
1759 |
448 |
2195 |
1730 |
1564 |
1442 |
1161 |
896 |
633 |
-8648 |
3717 |
5506 |
-9115 |
5937 |
4132 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.8 |
13.0 |
8.8 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
3.9 |
46.2 |
-14.4 |
-8.6 |
28.0 |
29.9 |
-30.6 |
-2.3 |
6.4 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
4.2 |
7.0 |
5.3 |
0.0 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
5.3 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
9.6 |
26.0 |
15.7 |
13.0 |
16.8 |
20.4 |
10.8 |
8.4 |
8.3 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
16.1 |
14.1 |
8.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
2.1 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.48 |
1.08 |
1.43 |
1.59 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
1.57 |
1.56 |
1.54 |
1.53 |
1.52 |
1.51 |
1.40 |
1.57 |
1.53 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
0.8 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2021 |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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