| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20 | 21F | 22F | 20 | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -7.5 | -38.5 | 40.6 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -5.4 | 6.0 | 3.9 | -3.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -7.1 | -45.6 | 63.4 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -6.1 | 5.2 | 4.8 | -4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 |
| Durable Goods | -30.8 | -46.0 | 279.8 | -0.7 | -2.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -3.7 | 12.1 | 1.0 | 9.0 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| Business Investment | -4.1 | -50.9 | 25.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.6 | -11.6 | 2.8 | 6.7 | -11.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 0.0 | -48.8 | -0.8 | -10.2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | -11.2 | -2.2 | 8.7 | -17.8 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -8.5 | -53.1 | 61.8 | 19.4 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | -12.0 | 7.9 | 4.8 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 |
| Residential Investment | -2.2 | -49.2 | 191.4 | 18.4 | 8.5 | 0.5 | -2.8 | -4.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 14.0 | -0.2 | 14.4 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Govt. Expenditure | -1.4 | -15.8 | 19.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -4.9 | -39.9 | 52.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | -4.5 | 5.3 | 3.8 | -2.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports | -10.4 | -54.2 | 73.1 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | -9.8 | 8.4 | 6.4 | -7.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 |
| Imports | -8.5 | -64.9 | 118.8 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | -11.3 | 8.9 | 6.9 | -6.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | 0.2 | -34.9 | -30.7 | -1.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | -16.8 | 0.7 | 3.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -3.2 | -35.3 | 52.9 | -3.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | -2.9 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -1.9 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -65.4 | -34.3 | -42.0 | -29.0 | -8.2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | -0.8 | -3.3 | -42.7 | 2.9 | 0.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.9 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | -35.2 | -47.0 | 253.5 | -2.7 | -7.0 | 39.2 | 28.2 | 17.2 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | -6.1 | 21.2 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 18.1 | 7.9 |
| % of GDP | 11.5 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 14.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 0.6 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | -11.0 | -40.2 | 54.6 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -4.6 | 10.6 | 6.1 | -1.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 |
| Labour Force | -2.9 | -16.8 | 21.0 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Employment | -5.5 | -38.2 | 38.5 | 9.9 | -0.5 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -5.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | -2.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | -268 | -2133 | 1412 | 433 | -25 | 341 | 303 | 155 | 73 | 58 | 49 | 38 | -975 | 918 | 504 | -556 | 773 | 219 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.4 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 6.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 5.9 | 57.0 | -15.7 | -3.8 | -1.6 | -3.7 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 10.0 | -1.6 | 2.6 | 7.7 | -1.9 | 4.3 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 5.1 | 27.8 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 14.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 207 | 191 | 239 | 239 | 255 | 247 | 238 | 229 | 223 | 218 | 211 | 205 | 219 | 242 | 214 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | 13.9 | 2.8 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 24.7 | 36.5 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 0.0 | -4.6 | -5.3 | -4.4 | 12.2 | 21.2 | -3.6 | 15.5 | 11.5 | -4.4 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||