Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
Economic Indicators |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Annual Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
20 |
21F |
22F |
20 |
21F |
22F |
Real GDP |
-7.5 |
-38.5 |
40.6 |
9.6 |
3.8 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
-5.4 |
6.0 |
3.9 |
-3.2 |
5.0 |
2.7 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
-7.1 |
-45.6 |
63.4 |
-0.4 |
2.6 |
5.5 |
8.3 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
-6.1 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
-4.8 |
5.6 |
3.3 |
Durable Goods |
-30.8 |
-46.0 |
279.8 |
-0.7 |
-2.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
-3.7 |
12.1 |
1.0 |
9.0 |
-0.1 |
1.2 |
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Business Investment |
-4.1 |
-50.9 |
25.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
6.6 |
9.2 |
8.3 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
-11.6 |
2.8 |
6.7 |
-11.5 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
Non-Res. Structures |
0.0 |
-48.8 |
-0.8 |
-10.2 |
5.3 |
7.2 |
9.8 |
9.9 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
-11.2 |
-2.2 |
8.7 |
-17.8 |
8.1 |
7.8 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-8.5 |
-53.1 |
61.8 |
19.4 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
8.5 |
6.7 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
-12.0 |
7.9 |
4.8 |
-4.6 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
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Residential Investment |
-2.2 |
-49.2 |
191.4 |
18.4 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
-2.8 |
-4.4 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
14.0 |
-0.2 |
14.4 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-1.4 |
-15.8 |
19.7 |
6.1 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
-0.3 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
Final Domestic Demand |
-4.9 |
-39.9 |
52.8 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
-4.5 |
5.3 |
3.8 |
-2.5 |
4.4 |
2.9 |
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Exports |
-10.4 |
-54.2 |
73.1 |
5.0 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
7.6 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
-9.8 |
8.4 |
6.4 |
-7.1 |
9.1 |
4.1 |
Imports |
-8.5 |
-64.9 |
118.8 |
10.8 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
9.1 |
10.2 |
7.6 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
-11.3 |
8.9 |
6.9 |
-6.0 |
7.3 |
5.0 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
0.2 |
-34.9 |
-30.7 |
-1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
-16.8 |
0.7 |
3.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-3.2 |
-35.3 |
52.9 |
-3.4 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
-2.9 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
-1.9 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-65.4 |
-34.3 |
-42.0 |
-29.0 |
-8.2 |
5.9 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.7 |
-0.8 |
-3.3 |
-42.7 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.9 |
-1.7 |
-1.9 |
-1.3 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-1.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
-35.2 |
-47.0 |
253.5 |
-2.7 |
-7.0 |
39.2 |
28.2 |
17.2 |
15.7 |
8.3 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
-6.1 |
21.2 |
14.8 |
4.3 |
18.1 |
7.9 |
% of GDP |
11.5 |
11.1 |
13.7 |
13.2 |
12.6 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
14.3 |
14.6 |
14.7 |
14.7 |
14.7 |
12.4 |
13.6 |
14.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
0.6 |
-0.7 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
4.2 |
5.8 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
4.4 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
Nominal GDP |
-11.0 |
-40.2 |
54.6 |
14.3 |
9.7 |
9.2 |
9.0 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
-4.6 |
10.6 |
6.1 |
-1.5 |
8.6 |
4.7 |
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Labour Force |
-2.9 |
-16.8 |
21.0 |
3.7 |
-1.7 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
-1.1 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
Employment |
-5.5 |
-38.2 |
38.5 |
9.9 |
-0.5 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
3.3 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
-5.1 |
5.1 |
2.7 |
-2.9 |
4.2 |
1.1 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
-268 |
-2133 |
1412 |
433 |
-25 |
341 |
303 |
155 |
73 |
58 |
49 |
38 |
-975 |
918 |
504 |
-556 |
773 |
219 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.4 |
13.1 |
10.1 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
9.6 |
7.2 |
6.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
5.9 |
57.0 |
-15.7 |
-3.8 |
-1.6 |
-3.7 |
-3.3 |
1.2 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
10.0 |
-1.6 |
2.6 |
7.7 |
-1.9 |
4.3 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
5.1 |
27.8 |
13.7 |
12.7 |
11.2 |
8.6 |
5.2 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
14.8 |
7.1 |
2.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
207 |
191 |
239 |
239 |
255 |
247 |
238 |
229 |
223 |
218 |
211 |
205 |
219 |
242 |
214 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
13.9 |
2.8 |
16.3 |
15.5 |
24.7 |
36.5 |
15.0 |
11.5 |
0.0 |
-4.6 |
-5.3 |
-4.4 |
12.2 |
21.2 |
-3.6 |
15.5 |
11.5 |
-4.4 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2021 |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8
most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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