| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20 | 21F | 22F | 20 | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -5.0 | -31.4 | 33.4 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | -3.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | -2.4 | 7.5 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -6.9 | -33.2 | 41.0 | 2.3 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | -3.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | -2.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 |
| Durable Goods | -12.5 | -1.7 | 82.7 | -1.1 | 48.7 | 17.9 | -12.8 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 19.9 | -0.6 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 0.6 |
| Business Investment | -6.7 | -27.2 | 22.9 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | -4.0 | 8.0 | 5.1 | -1.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 |
| Non-Res. Structures | -3.7 | -33.6 | -17.4 | -6.2 | -5.7 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.3 | -11.0 | -6.8 | 1.4 | -16.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -7.5 | -25.2 | 36.6 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 8.9 | 5.3 |
| Residential Investment | 19.0 | -35.5 | 63.0 | 36.6 | 12.7 | -4.0 | 6.3 | -1.7 | -3.6 | -5.3 | -4.0 | -3.7 | 6.1 | 12.6 | -2.5 | 14.3 | 3.1 | -4.2 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 1.3 | 2.5 | -4.8 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 9.6 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -4.6 | -27.1 | 29.8 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -2.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 |
| Exports | -9.5 | -64.4 | 59.6 | 22.3 | -2.9 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.3 | -12.9 | 6.2 | 8.0 | -10.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| Imports | -15.0 | -54.1 | 93.0 | 29.9 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | -9.3 | 13.4 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | -80.9 | -287.0 | -3.7 | 62.1 | -92.9 | -99.1 | 78.0 | 190.5 | 172.5 | 150.7 | 134.6 | 117.8 | -77.4 | 19.1 | 143.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -3.6 | -28.1 | 25.9 | 2.9 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | -2.9 | 6.3 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -458 | -653 | -724 | -754 | -836 | -823 | -837 | -820 | -813 | -794 | -769 | -741 | -647 | -829 | -779 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.1 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -3.8 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | -39.9 | -35.2 | 163.1 | -5.3 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 4.1 | 21.0 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | -5.8 | 18.6 | 8.2 | -0.7 | 16.7 | 2.6 |
| % of GDP | 9.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| Nominal GDP | -3.4 | -32.8 | 38.4 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | -2.3 | 10.7 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 11.9 | 5.2 |
| Labor Force | -1.4 | -13.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -1.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -2.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Employment | 0.3 | -40.0 | 23.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -5.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | -6.0 | 4.4 | 2.7 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 132 | -18201 | 7195 | 1759 | 736 | 1538 | 2252 | 1799 | 1321 | 1063 | 888 | 758 | -8648 | 3832 | 5611 | -9115 | 6325 | 4030 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 3.9 | 46.2 | -14.4 | -6.2 | 67.7 | -22.7 | -7.0 | -1.8 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 9.6 | 26.0 | 15.7 | 13.6 | 21.4 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.49 | 1.09 | 1.44 | 1.58 | 1.60 | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.57 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.40 | 1.59 | 1.53 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 0.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2021. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||