| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20 | 21F | 22F | 20 | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -7.9 | -38.0 | 41.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | -5.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | -3.1 | 5.3 | 3.2 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -7.5 | -45.4 | 63.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | -0.1 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | -6.0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -4.4 | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Durable Goods | -32.0 | -42.1 | 269.2 | -1.3 | 5.9 | -3.4 | -2.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -3.3 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Business Investment | -4.5 | -50.9 | 21.1 | 6.1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | -11.9 | 1.0 | 8.3 | -11.9 | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 1.0 | -48.1 | -8.4 | -6.3 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 7.7 | -11.3 | -4.1 | 9.0 | -18.1 | 6.1 | 8.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -10.4 | -53.8 | 63.5 | 19.7 | -1.6 | -1.2 | 14.6 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.0 | -12.6 | 6.3 | 7.5 | -5.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Residential Investment | -3.9 | -45.8 | 181.9 | 16.9 | 43.3 | -9.4 | -4.7 | -3.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 19.4 | -1.0 | 14.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| Govt. Expenditure | -0.8 | -15.1 | 23.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -5.1 | -39.2 | 53.3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | -4.3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | -2.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Exports | -12.0 | -53.4 | 72.3 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.2 | -10.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | -7.4 | 7.6 | 5.6 |
| Imports | -8.3 | -64.7 | 117.4 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 10.2 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.1 | -11.2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | -5.9 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | 1.0 | -35.8 | -31.8 | -4.2 | -5.1 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.6 | -17.7 | -3.5 | 2.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -3.7 | -34.3 | 53.2 | -2.4 | 7.9 | -0.3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | -2.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | -1.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -67.8 | -31.7 | -39.7 | -21.1 | 4.7 | 19.3 | 24.0 | 17.9 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.4 | -40.1 | 16.5 | 8.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.0 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | -36.7 | -38.6 | 232.6 | 10.8 | 95.6 | 17.5 | -5.0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -4.0 | 38.4 | 2.9 | 9.4 | 23.0 | 2.4 |
| % of GDP | 11.4 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 15.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 0.5 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | -11.9 | -39.6 | 54.9 | 15.4 | 18.4 | 5.9 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | -4.6 | 12.7 | 6.7 | -1.2 | 10.7 | 5.2 |
| Labour Force | -2.9 | -16.8 | 21.0 | 3.7 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Employment | -5.5 | -38.2 | 38.5 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -5.1 | 4.8 | 3.2 | -2.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | -268 | -2133 | 1412 | 433 | 44 | 102 | 370 | 225 | 95 | 88 | 77 | 79 | -975 | 859 | 598 | -556 | 741 | 339 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.4 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 5.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 5.7 | 64.2 | -19.1 | -2.6 | 9.5 | 1.4 | -3.8 | -7.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 8.1 | -0.3 | 5.4 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 5.1 | 27.4 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 14.5 | 10.0 | 4.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 207 | 191 | 239 | 240 | 305 | 256 | 242 | 230 | 220 | 215 | 209 | 204 | 219 | 258 | 212 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | 13.8 | 2.8 | 16.6 | 15.5 | 26.6 | 36.2 | 14.3 | 10.9 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 12.3 | 21.2 | 0.2 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 1.2 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2021. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||