U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless
Otherwise Indicated |
Economic Indicators |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
21F |
22F |
23F |
21F |
22F |
23F |
Real GDP |
6.3 |
6.7 |
2.1 |
7.0 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
11.4 |
12.0 |
1.7 |
6.2 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
8.1 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
7.8 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
Durable Goods |
50.0 |
11.6 |
-24.4 |
8.8 |
-0.2 |
-2.6 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
18.5 |
-1.9 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
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Business Investment |
12.9 |
9.2 |
1.5 |
4.0 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
6.8 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
Non-Res. Structures |
5.4 |
-3.0 |
-5.0 |
-7.2 |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
-8.0 |
-2.1 |
3.0 |
-2.6 |
0.8 |
3.6 |
Equipment & IPP* |
14.8 |
12.3 |
3.1 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
11.7 |
6.6 |
4.5 |
9.2 |
6.2 |
3.8 |
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Residential Investment |
13.3 |
-11.7 |
-8.3 |
-2.3 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-1.3 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
8.8 |
-2.4 |
-0.6 |
-2.7 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
Govt. Expenditure |
4.2 |
-2.0 |
0.9 |
-2.4 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
Final Domestic Demand |
10.4 |
8.0 |
1.1 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
6.7 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
5.8 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
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Exports |
-2.9 |
7.6 |
-3.0 |
12.5 |
0.4 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
6.5 |
3.3 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
Imports |
9.3 |
7.1 |
5.8 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
13.3 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
6.6 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
-88.3 |
-168.5 |
-73.2 |
13.5 |
31.6 |
61.2 |
79.3 |
96.4 |
112.8 |
116.1 |
111.9 |
105.8 |
-79.1 |
67.1 |
111.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
9.1 |
8.1 |
0.0 |
4.9 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
5.5 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-758 |
-761 |
-836 |
-754 |
-740 |
-720 |
-725 |
-727 |
-720 |
-711 |
-699 |
-685 |
-777 |
-728 |
-704 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.4 |
-3.3 |
-3.6 |
-3.1 |
-3.0 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-2.8 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-3.4 |
-2.9 |
-2.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
22.0 |
49.1 |
18.4 |
-23.4 |
6.9 |
5.7 |
2.7 |
-2.1 |
2.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
23.3 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
13.3 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
% of GDP |
11.6 |
12.4 |
12.7 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.4 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
11.0 |
10.9 |
12.0 |
11.4 |
11.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.1 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
5.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
Nominal GDP |
10.9 |
13.4 |
8.1 |
13.9 |
6.9 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
10.0 |
8.2 |
5.0 |
11.5 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
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Labor Force |
-0.7 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
Employment |
2.1 |
4.8 |
6.7 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
736 |
1701 |
2385 |
1139 |
1012 |
931 |
866 |
770 |
530 |
432 |
404 |
367 |
3856 |
4808 |
2391 |
5961 |
3579 |
1733 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.2 |
5.9 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
60.6 |
-24.5 |
1.0 |
-0.8 |
0.8 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
0.2 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
20.5 |
10.9 |
9.6 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
11.9 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.9 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
4.6 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
2.2 |
6.6 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
1.4 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
5.4 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.60 |
1.59 |
1.56 |
1.56 |
1.53 |
1.51 |
1.50 |
1.49 |
1.48 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
1.57 |
1.51 |
1.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
4.1 |
1.9 |
-0.6 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2021. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business
sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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