| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 21F | 22F | 23F | 21F | 22F | 23F | |
| Real GDP | 4.9 | -3.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 2.5 | -0.5 | 17.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| Durable Goods | 1.8 | -12.6 | -5.4 | -6.2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 8.3 | -0.6 | 2.5 | -5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Business Investment | -5.1 | 12.9 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 4.1 | 3.4 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -5.3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -13.1 | 23.5 | -2.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 |
| Residential Investment | 43.2 | -11.3 | -31.3 | -12.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 13.7 | -6.7 | 1.4 | -6.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 5.8 | -0.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Exports | 2.7 | -17.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 |
| Imports | 4.6 | 2.1 | -2.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | -2.2 | 11.8 | -2.3 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 15.1 | 15.9 | 16.9 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 15.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 6.6 | -3.2 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 1.7 | -3.0 | -7.2 | -9.2 | -10.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | -7.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | 93.7 | -8.3 | -23.9 | -5.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 29.7 | -3.3 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| % of GDP | 16.1 | 15.6 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 12.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Nominal GDP | 18.7 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
| Labour Force | -0.9 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Employment | 1.0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 44 | 113 | 338 | 280 | 135 | 120 | 105 | 76 | 52 | 42 | 38 | 33 | 865 | 703 | 250 | 774 | 436 | 165 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.4 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 11.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | -6.2 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 13.1 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 3.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 306 | 280 | 262 | 239 | 233 | 231 | 225 | 220 | 218 | 216 | 215 | 215 | 271 | 227 | 216 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | 26.5 | 33.0 | 14.3 | 18.5 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 22.5 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 18.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 1.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2021. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||