| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20F | 21F | 22F | 20F | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -5.0 | -31.7 | 29.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | -4.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -3.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -6.9 | -34.1 | 38.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | -4.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | -3.4 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Durable Goods | -12.5 | -1.2 | 79.8 | -5.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 |
| Business Investment | -6.7 | -26.0 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.6 | -5.6 | 1.7 | 5.3 | -6.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| Non-Res. Structures | -3.7 | -33.4 | -24.1 | -10.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | -12.1 | -7.2 | 3.7 | -18.7 | 1.9 | 4.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -7.5 | -23.7 | 23.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.4 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Residential Investment | 19.0 | -37.9 | 56.9 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 1.3 | 2.8 | -2.3 | -4.6 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -4.6 | -27.7 | 27.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | -3.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | -2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Exports | -9.5 | -63.2 | 80.0 | 22.0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | -11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | -7.5 | 6.2 | 4.1 |
| Imports | -15.0 | -54.0 | 85.8 | 13.4 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -10.5 | 9.7 | 4.3 | -4.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | -80.9 | -286.4 | -138.0 | -95.4 | -41.3 | -4.1 | 15.9 | 38.0 | 60.2 | 67.5 | 66.5 | 65.2 | -150.2 | 2.1 | 64.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -3.6 | -28.5 | 25.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | -3.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -417 | -563 | -651 | -636 | -664 | -711 | -728 | -754 | -792 | -799 | -801 | -808 | -567 | -714 | -800 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -1.9 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2.7 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | -39.9 | -37.7 | 536.6 | -74.7 | -12.6 | -1.0 | 5.7 | -8.4 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -2.8 | -10.1 | -1.2 | -11.9 | -4.3 | -0.1 |
| % of GDP | 9.4 | 9.3 | 13.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Nominal GDP | -3.4 | -33.3 | 34.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | -2.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | -2.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Labor Force | -1.0 | -13.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | -1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Employment | 0.4 | -40.0 | 22.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -5.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 | -5.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 134 | -18,209 | 7,086 | 2,211 | 1,206 | 726 | 1,455 | 1,820 | 1,118 | 973 | 866 | 695 | (8,574) | 3,582 | 4,729 | (8,778) | 5,207 | 3,652 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 3.9 | 44.4 | -19.2 | 22.8 | -29.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 8.0 | -3.6 | 4.5 | 10.5 | -5.4 | 4.4 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 9.6 | 26.0 | 14.9 | 18.1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 17.1 | 9.1 | 8.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.48 | 1.06 | 1.44 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.37 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 0.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||