Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Annual Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
Real GDP |
-8.2 |
-38.7 |
47.3 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
-5.6 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
-4.1 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
-12.4 |
-43.0 |
43.4 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
-8.0 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
-7.1 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
Durable Goods |
-31.1 |
-49.8 |
80.0 |
8.2 |
4.5 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
-13.5 |
6.5 |
1.7 |
-9.4 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
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Business Investment |
-2.0 |
-52.8 |
40.6 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
-10.4 |
2.7 |
5.0 |
-9.3 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
Non-Res. Structures |
6.9 |
-51.5 |
40.0 |
-1.0 |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
-6.2 |
0.3 |
4.1 |
-7.9 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-11.3 |
-54.2 |
41.2 |
10.6 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
7.3 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
-14.7 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
-10.7 |
7.2 |
4.7 |
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Residential Investment |
-3.0 |
-47.6 |
150.0 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
6.2 |
1.3 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
1.7 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-0.2 |
-11.6 |
9.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
-0.5 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
Final Domestic Demand |
-7.5 |
-37.4 |
38.9 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
-5.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
-4.7 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
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Exports |
-8.6 |
-55.6 |
90.8 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
7.0 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
-8.9 |
6.8 |
4.5 |
-5.5 |
6.1 |
2.9 |
Imports |
-9.9 |
-64.1 |
121.1 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
8.0 |
8.8 |
7.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
-11.4 |
7.6 |
4.9 |
-7.4 |
6.8 |
3.2 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
3.1 |
-40.2 |
4.5 |
0.3 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
-8.1 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-6.6 |
-31.5 |
26.2 |
3.7 |
1.8 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
-4.7 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
-4.4 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-52.9 |
-34.5 |
-59.6 |
-57.9 |
-59.5 |
-65.6 |
-67.8 |
-70.3 |
-72.2 |
-73.7 |
-74.8 |
-76.2 |
-51.2 |
-65.8 |
-74.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.3 |
-1.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
-2.4 |
-2.9 |
-3.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
-32.8 |
-67.8 |
115.0 |
75.0 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
-16.2 |
24.1 |
4.5 |
-5.1 |
12.2 |
3.6 |
% of GDP |
11.4 |
9.8 |
10.7 |
12.2 |
12.9 |
13.0 |
13.1 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
11.1 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
-0.4 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
Nominal GDP |
-9.9 |
-41.5 |
50.9 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
-5.6 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
-4.5 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
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Labour Force |
-3.3 |
-17.1 |
21.3 |
6.3 |
2.3 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
-1.1 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Employment |
-5.8 |
-38.4 |
37.0 |
11.1 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
-5.3 |
5.3 |
2.2 |
-3.0 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
-282 |
-2147 |
1369 |
484 |
208 |
175 |
134 |
131 |
107 |
72 |
65 |
62 |
-1013 |
949 |
417 |
-577 |
647 |
306 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.3 |
13.0 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
8.8 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
9.7 |
7.9 |
6.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
5.1 |
50.9 |
-10.9 |
-1.4 |
-1.0 |
-14.4 |
4.5 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
9.7 |
-1.6 |
1.8 |
8.6 |
-2.3 |
2.7 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
7.6 |
28.2 |
18.2 |
16.6 |
15.2 |
10.4 |
9.7 |
8.6 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
17.6 |
11.0 |
6.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.8 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
209 |
191 |
241 |
208 |
210 |
211 |
212 |
213 |
212 |
207 |
205 |
204 |
212 |
212 |
207 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
13.1 |
3.2 |
17.0 |
14.7 |
6.9 |
9.7 |
-7.3 |
-7.1 |
-1.6 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
12.1 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
14.7 |
-7.1 |
1.8 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
-0.5 |
-0.8 |
1.0 |
-1.1 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
-0.1 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
-1.1 |
1.0 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2020 |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8
most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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