Canadian Economic Outlook
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
                           2020 2021 2022 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
  Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 20F 21F 22F 20F 21F 22F
 Real GDP -8.2 -38.7 47.3 2.1 2.6 2.9 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.1 2.1 1.6 -5.6 4.1 3.2 -4.1 3.4 2.6
                                     
 Consumer Expenditure -12.4 -43.0 43.4 4.0 2.9 4.6 5.3 5.6 4.7 3.8 2.2 1.5 -8.0 4.3 4.2 -7.1 4.6 3.0
Durable Goods             -31.1 -49.8 80.0 8.2 4.5 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 -13.5 6.5 1.7 -9.4 2.9 1.5
                                     
 Business Investment -2.0 -52.8 40.6 4.1 2.9 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.4 -10.4 2.7 5.0 -9.3 4.6 4.4
Non-Res. Structures 6.9 -51.5 40.0 -1.0 -0.5 2.5 3.0 4.3 5.0 4.7 3.7 3.5 -6.2 0.3 4.1 -7.9 2.3 4.2
Equipment & IPP* -11.3 -54.2 41.2 10.6 7.1 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.1 4.1 3.2 -14.7 5.7 5.9 -10.7 7.2 4.7
                                     
 Residential Investment -3.0 -47.6 150.0 -3.5 -3.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.0 6.2 1.3 5.2 0.0 1.7
 Govt. Expenditure -0.2 -11.6 9.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 -0.5 1.7 1.5 -0.3 1.5 1.6
 Final Domestic Demand -7.5 -37.4 38.9 2.9 2.2 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.2 1.8 -5.7 3.6 3.4 -4.7 3.4 2.7
                                     
 Exports                   -8.6 -55.6 90.8 3.3 3.1 5.5 8.9 7.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 -8.9 6.8 4.5 -5.5 6.1 2.9
 Imports                   -9.9 -64.1 121.1 2.9 3.2 8.0 8.8 7.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 -11.4 7.6 4.9 -7.4 6.8 3.2
                                     
 Change in Non-farm                                    
 Inventories (2012 $Bn) 3.1 -40.2 4.5 0.3 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 -8.1 2.8 2.4 -- -- --
 Final Sales -6.6 -31.5 26.2 3.7 1.8 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.2 1.8 -4.7 3.0 3.4 -4.4 3.3 2.8
                                     
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -52.9 -34.5 -59.6 -57.9 -59.5 -65.6 -67.8 -70.3 -72.2 -73.7 -74.8 -76.2 -51.2 -65.8 -74.2 -- -- --
% of GDP  -2.3 -1.7 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.4 -2.9 -3.1 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corp. Profits -32.8 -67.8 115.0 75.0 30.0 10.0 7.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 -16.2 24.1 4.5 -5.1 12.2 3.6
% of GDP  11.4 9.8 10.7 12.2 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 11.1 13.0 12.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 1.5 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.6 1.9 -0.4 1.8 2.0
 Nominal GDP  -9.9 -41.5 50.9 4.8 4.5 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.1 3.6 -5.6 5.8 5.2 -4.5 5.3 4.6
                                     
 Labour Force -3.3 -17.1 21.3 6.3 2.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 -1.1 3.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7
 Employment  -5.8 -38.4 37.0 11.1 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 -5.3 5.3 2.2 -3.0 3.5 1.6
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  -282 -2147 1369 484 208 175 134 131 107 72 65 62 -1013 949 417 -577 647 306
 Unemployment Rate (%)  6.3 13.0 10.3 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 9.7 7.9 6.5 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  5.1 50.9 -10.9 -1.4 -1.0 -14.4 4.5 3.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 9.7 -1.6 1.8 8.6 -2.3 2.7
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  7.6 28.2 18.2 16.6 15.2 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.5 6.7 6.4 6.3 17.6 11.0 6.7 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 1.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 0.5 2.0 2.1
 CPIX (y/y)** 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.0
 BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.1
 Housing Starts ('000s) 209 191 241 208 210 211 212 213 212 207 205 204 212 212 207 -- -- --
 Home Prices (y/y) 13.1 3.2 17.0 14.7 6.9 9.7 -7.3 -7.1 -1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 12.1 0.0 0.8 14.7 -7.1 1.8
 Real GDP / worker (y/y) -0.5 -0.8 1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -2.5 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 -0.3 -1.1 1.0 -1.1 -0.1 1.0
                                     
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2020
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.