Interest Rate Outlook

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Canada

Overnight Target Rate

0.25

3-mth T-Bill Rate

0.21

0.20

0.15

0.20

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.42

0.28

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.50

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.60

0.36

0.35

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.75

0.85

1.00

1.05

1.15

1.25

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.71

0.52

0.60

0.75

0.90

1.05

1.20

1.35

1.45

1.60

1.65

1.70

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.30

0.99

1.10

1.25

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.29

0.31

0.30

0.45

0.60

0.75

0.90

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.20

U.S.

Fed Funds Target Rate

0.25

3-mth T-Bill Rate

0.11

0.16

0.10

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.23

0.16

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.37

0.29

0.25

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.75

0.90

0.95

1.05

1.15

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

0.70

0.66

0.70

0.80

0.95

1.10

1.25

1.40

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.35

1.41

1.45

1.60

1.75

1.85

1.95

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.47

0.36

0.55

0.60

0.75

0.90

1.05

1.20

1.35

Canada-U.S. Spreads

Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread

0.10

0.25

0.05

0.10

Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread

0.01

-0.14

-0.10

-0.05

-0.10

0.00

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2020. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.