| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 19 | 20F | 21F | 19 | 20F | 21F | |
| Real GDP | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -3.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.1 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -4.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Durable Goods | 0.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | -9.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| Business Investment | 4.4 | -1.0 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -5.7 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | -1.6 | 2.7 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.4 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 4.0 | -11.1 | -9.9 | -8.1 | -5.7 | -10.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | -4.3 | -6.6 | 1.4 | -6.5 | -3.2 | 2.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 4.6 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -4.4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Residential Investment | -1.1 | -2.9 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 14.1 | -3.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 2.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 1.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Exports | 4.2 | -5.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Imports | -1.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | -8.6 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | -2.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | 116.0 | 69.4 | 69.4 | 13.0 | -1.1 | 12.6 | -3.7 | -6.0 | 10.0 | 28.3 | 45.0 | 54.4 | 67.0 | 0.4 | 34.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | -3.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -545 | -501 | -496 | -453 | -416 | -358 | -310 | -284 | -305 | -335 | -370 | -407 | -499 | -342 | -354 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.6 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | -14.3 | 16.0 | -0.9 | -4.9 | -5.3 | -23.8 | 22.2 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 5.1 | -0.9 | -3.1 | 8.5 | -1.6 | 0.3 | 7.0 |
| % of GDP | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Nominal GDP | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.8 |
| Labor Force | 0.6 | -0.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Employment | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 485 | 425 | 551 | 616 | 491 | 152 | 95 | 209 | 326 | 307 | 267 | 238 | 2,042 | 1,548 | 991 | 2,077 | 947 | 1,138 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 4.8 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 8.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 8.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.39 | 1.38 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||