Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless
Otherwise Indicated |
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
Annual
Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
19 |
20F |
21F |
19 |
20F |
21F |
Real GDP |
1.0 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
-0.6 |
-3.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
2.4 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
-4.4 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
Durable Goods |
4.8 |
-2.6 |
1.4 |
-0.2 |
1.6 |
-4.0 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
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Business Investment |
11.6 |
-6.2 |
5.3 |
-5.8 |
3.1 |
-5.1 |
-2.8 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
-0.8 |
-1.2 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
-0.2 |
4.3 |
Non-Res. Structures |
4.4 |
4.3 |
11.2 |
-1.7 |
2.7 |
-6.4 |
-3.8 |
4.5 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
4.5 |
-0.9 |
3.9 |
Equipment & IPP* |
19.0 |
-15.8 |
-0.6 |
-10.2 |
3.5 |
-3.5 |
-1.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
-2.5 |
-2.9 |
3.2 |
-2.7 |
0.5 |
4.8 |
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Residential Investment |
-3.1 |
6.4 |
13.0 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
4.3 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
-0.6 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
Govt. Expenditure |
2.8 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
Final Domestic Demand |
3.1 |
0.1 |
3.1 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
-2.7 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
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Exports |
-4.0 |
10.6 |
-0.6 |
-5.1 |
-5.3 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
-1.0 |
3.2 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
3.3 |
Imports |
8.3 |
-4.1 |
-0.2 |
-2.5 |
-2.9 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
0.3 |
-0.8 |
2.7 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
3.1 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
21.3 |
14.9 |
3.8 |
7.9 |
4.5 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
12.0 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
1.2 |
1.5 |
5.1 |
0.1 |
2.5 |
-2.3 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-69.4 |
-33.7 |
-43.5 |
-35.0 |
-49.5 |
-69.4 |
-63.1 |
-61.0 |
-61.1 |
-61.6 |
-62.9 |
-64.3 |
-45.4 |
-60.8 |
-62.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.1 |
-1.5 |
-1.9 |
-1.5 |
-2.1 |
-3.0 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.0 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
9.1 |
40.4 |
-19.3 |
1.6 |
-8.5 |
-30.0 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
18.0 |
13.0 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
0.3 |
-6.1 |
10.6 |
5.8 |
-3.0 |
9.5 |
% of GDP |
12.3 |
13.1 |
12.4 |
12.3 |
12.0 |
11.1 |
11.4 |
11.8 |
12.1 |
12.4 |
12.4 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
11.6 |
12.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.1 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
3.3 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
Nominal GDP |
5.7 |
8.2 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
-0.5 |
-4.6 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
1.4 |
4.0 |
4.9 |
1.3 |
4.1 |
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Labour Force |
3.4 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
Employment |
3.0 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
-1.1 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
141 |
121 |
54 |
23 |
51 |
-55 |
11 |
50 |
68 |
53 |
47 |
44 |
391 |
101 |
172 |
340 |
56 |
213 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
4.4 |
7.2 |
2.2 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
2.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
187 |
224 |
223 |
202 |
208 |
193 |
207 |
206 |
210 |
213 |
217 |
215 |
209 |
204 |
213 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
-3.8 |
1.4 |
4.1 |
7.6 |
14.2 |
9.3 |
7.2 |
6.2 |
4.2 |
5.1 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
9.1 |
3.8 |
7.6 |
6.2 |
2.6 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
-1.0 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2020 |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the
8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage
and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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