SPOTS

2019

2020

2021

Mar/16/2020

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Canada

Overnight Target Rate

1.75

0.75

0.25

0.50

0.75

3-mth T-Bill Rate

1.67

1.66

1.65

0.46

0.40

0.15

0.28

0.53

0.78

0.457

change sp

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.55

1.47

1.58

0.47

0.40

0.50

0.65

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.35

1.50

0.47

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.52

1.39

1.40

0.62

0.50

0.60

0.75

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.45

1.60

0.617

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.62

1.46

1.37

0.78

0.65

0.75

0.90

1.05

1.25

1.45

1.60

1.75

0.775

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.89

1.68

1.53

1.25

1.00

1.05

1.15

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.85

2.00

1.25

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.07

-0.01

-0.21

0.31

0.25

0.31

0.25

0.305

U.S.

Fed Funds Target Rate

2.50

2.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.25

Fed fund rate hardcoded as per JM

3-mth T-Bill Rate

2.35

2.08

1.84

0.21

0.15

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.205

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.27

1.75

1.63

0.36

0.45

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.70

0.3599

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.23

1.76

1.55

0.49

0.55

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.80

0.4905

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.41

2.00

1.68

0.72

0.70

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

1.65

1.85

1.95

0.7182

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.81

2.52

2.12

1.28

0.95

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.20

1.2841

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.14

0.25

0.05

0.36

0.25

0.36

0.25

0.3583

Canada-U.S. Spreads

Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread

-0.68

-0.42

-0.19

0.25

0.05

-0.10

-0.22

0.252

Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread

-0.79

-0.54

-0.31

0.06

-0.05

0.06

-0.15

-0.20

-0.25

-0.20

0.0568

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2020. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. *Spot rates as at March 16, 2020 with the exception of policy rates.


Interest Rate Outlook													SPOTS
	2019				2020				2021				Mar/16/2020
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F
Canada
Overnight Target Rate	1.75	1.75	1.75	0.75	0.75	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.50	0.75	0.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate	1.67	1.66	1.65	0.46	0.40	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.28	0.53	0.78	0.457	change spot rate date on table
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.55	1.47	1.58	0.47	0.40	0.50	0.65	0.80	1.00	1.20	1.35	1.50	0.47
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.52	1.39	1.40	0.62	0.50	0.60	0.75	0.90	1.10	1.30	1.45	1.60	0.617
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.62	1.46	1.37	0.78	0.65	0.75	0.90	1.05	1.25	1.45	1.60	1.75	0.775
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.89	1.68	1.53	1.25	1.00	1.05	1.15	1.30	1.50	1.70	1.85	2.00	1.25
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread	0.07	-0.01	-0.21	0.31	0.25	0.31	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.305
U.S.
Fed Funds Target Rate	2.50	2.50	2.00	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.50	0.75	1.00	0.25	Fed fund rate hardcoded as per JM
3-mth T-Bill Rate	2.35	2.08	1.84	0.21	0.15	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.25	0.50	0.75	1.00	0.205
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.27	1.75	1.63	0.36	0.45	0.60	0.80	1.00	1.20	1.40	1.60	1.70	0.3599
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.23	1.76	1.55	0.49	0.55	0.70	0.90	1.10	1.30	1.50	1.70	1.80	0.4905
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.41	2.00	1.68	0.72	0.70	0.85	1.05	1.25	1.45	1.65	1.85	1.95	0.7182
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.81	2.52	2.12	1.28	0.95	1.10	1.30	1.50	1.70	1.90	2.10	2.20	1.2841
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread	0.14	0.25	0.05	0.36	0.25	0.36	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.3583
Canada-U.S. Spreads
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread	-0.68	-0.42	-0.19	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.05	0.05	-0.10	-0.22	-0.22	-0.22	0.252
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread	-0.79	-0.54	-0.31	0.06	-0.05	0.06	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-0.20	-0.25	-0.20	0.0568
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2020. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. *Spot rates as at March 16, 2020 with the exception of policy rates.