U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
Real GDP |
-5.0 |
-31.4 |
33.1 |
5.0 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
-3.5 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
-2.3 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
-6.9 |
-33.2 |
40.6 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
-3.7 |
5.1 |
3.6 |
-2.0 |
4.0 |
2.8 |
Durable Goods |
-12.5 |
-1.7 |
82.9 |
4.9 |
-4.5 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
6.8 |
8.3 |
2.2 |
13.3 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
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Business Investment |
-6.7 |
-27.2 |
21.8 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
-4.6 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
-3.7 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-3.7 |
-33.6 |
-15.8 |
-12.0 |
2.8 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
-11.1 |
-5.8 |
3.4 |
-17.0 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-7.5 |
-25.2 |
31.8 |
8.2 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
-3.0 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
-0.3 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
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Residential Investment |
19.0 |
-35.5 |
62.3 |
30.7 |
1.6 |
-6.3 |
-3.0 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
5.7 |
7.2 |
-0.4 |
12.9 |
-2.0 |
0.6 |
Govt. Expenditure |
1.3 |
2.5 |
-4.9 |
-3.8 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
-0.6 |
0.6 |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
Final Domestic Demand |
-4.6 |
-27.1 |
29.4 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
-2.7 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
-1.5 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
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Exports |
-9.5 |
-64.4 |
60.5 |
17.8 |
6.3 |
11.1 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
7.4 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
-13.1 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
-11.6 |
9.2 |
6.1 |
Imports |
-15.0 |
-54.1 |
93.1 |
16.8 |
8.8 |
9.9 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
-9.9 |
12.0 |
5.5 |
-3.1 |
8.7 |
3.5 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
-80.9 |
-287.0 |
-4.3 |
31.9 |
52.9 |
42.2 |
60.0 |
83.5 |
98.8 |
99.6 |
93.2 |
86.4 |
-85.1 |
59.6 |
94.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-3.6 |
-28.1 |
25.6 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
-2.9 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
-2.4 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-446 |
-682 |
-830 |
-821 |
-845 |
-844 |
-866 |
-876 |
-871 |
-864 |
-857 |
-851 |
-695 |
-858 |
-861 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.1 |
-3.5 |
-3.9 |
-3.8 |
-3.9 |
-3.8 |
-3.9 |
-3.9 |
-3.8 |
-3.7 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.3 |
-3.9 |
-3.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
-39.9 |
-35.2 |
161.1 |
-29.4 |
26.4 |
-25.0 |
-12.3 |
2.9 |
9.5 |
7.0 |
4.5 |
2.1 |
-7.7 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
-7.9 |
-3.8 |
5.7 |
% of GDP |
9.4 |
9.4 |
11.0 |
9.9 |
10.4 |
9.5 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.9 |
9.5 |
9.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.7 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
Nominal GDP |
-3.4 |
-32.8 |
38.0 |
7.5 |
3.6 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
-2.3 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
-0.9 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
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Labor Force |
-1.0 |
-13.4 |
5.3 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
-1.7 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
-2.3 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
Employment |
0.4 |
-40.0 |
23.0 |
4.6 |
1.7 |
6.7 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
-5.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
-6.2 |
4.4 |
1.8 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
134 |
-18,209 |
7,089 |
1,598 |
613 |
2,353 |
1,927 |
1,360 |
966 |
663 |
520 |
511 |
(8,726) |
3,872 |
4,423 |
(9,388) |
6,253 |
2,660 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.8 |
13.0 |
8.8 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
8.1 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
3.9 |
46.2 |
-12.9 |
-9.9 |
14.1 |
-6.3 |
-2.1 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
7.2 |
0.7 |
2.3 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
9.6 |
26.0 |
16.1 |
12.4 |
14.3 |
11.2 |
9.4 |
8.7 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
7.8 |
7.6 |
16.0 |
10.9 |
7.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
2.1 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.48 |
1.08 |
1.44 |
1.51 |
1.38 |
1.36 |
1.35 |
1.36 |
1.37 |
1.37 |
1.37 |
1.38 |
1.38 |
1.36 |
1.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
0.9 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
-1.4 |
-1.2 |
-0.7 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2020 |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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