| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20F | 21F | 22F | 20F | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -5.0 | -31.4 | 33.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -3.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -6.9 | -33.2 | 40.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | -3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | -2.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Durable Goods | -12.5 | -1.7 | 82.9 | 4.9 | -4.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 13.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Business Investment | -6.7 | -27.2 | 21.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | -4.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Non-Res. Structures | -3.7 | -33.6 | -15.8 | -12.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.0 | -11.1 | -5.8 | 3.4 | -17.0 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -7.5 | -25.2 | 31.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -3.0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Residential Investment | 19.0 | -35.5 | 62.3 | 30.7 | 1.6 | -6.3 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.7 | 7.2 | -0.4 | 12.9 | -2.0 | 0.6 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 1.3 | 2.5 | -4.9 | -3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -4.6 | -27.1 | 29.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Exports | -9.5 | -64.4 | 60.5 | 17.8 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | -13.1 | 7.7 | 7.8 | -11.6 | 9.2 | 6.1 |
| Imports | -15.0 | -54.1 | 93.1 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -9.9 | 12.0 | 5.5 | -3.1 | 8.7 | 3.5 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | -80.9 | -287.0 | -4.3 | 31.9 | 52.9 | 42.2 | 60.0 | 83.5 | 98.8 | 99.6 | 93.2 | 86.4 | -85.1 | 59.6 | 94.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -3.6 | -28.1 | 25.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | -2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | -2.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -446 | -682 | -830 | -821 | -845 | -844 | -866 | -876 | -871 | -864 | -857 | -851 | -695 | -858 | -861 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.1 | -3.5 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -3.9 | -3.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | -39.9 | -35.2 | 161.1 | -29.4 | 26.4 | -25.0 | -12.3 | 2.9 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | -7.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -7.9 | -3.8 | 5.7 |
| % of GDP | 9.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Nominal GDP | -3.4 | -32.8 | 38.0 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | -0.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Labor Force | -1.0 | -13.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -2.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Employment | 0.4 | -40.0 | 23.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -5.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | -6.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 134 | -18,209 | 7,089 | 1,598 | 613 | 2,353 | 1,927 | 1,360 | 966 | 663 | 520 | 511 | (8,726) | 3,872 | 4,423 | (9,388) | 6,253 | 2,660 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 4.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 3.9 | 46.2 | -12.9 | -9.9 | 14.1 | -6.3 | -2.1 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 9.6 | 26.0 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 16.0 | 10.9 | 7.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.48 | 1.08 | 1.44 | 1.51 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.38 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.6 | -1.2 | 1.4 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||