Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Annual Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
20F |
21F |
22F |
Real GDP |
-7.3 |
-38.1 |
40.5 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
9.2 |
6.5 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
-5.7 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
-4.6 |
5.4 |
2.4 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
-10.1 |
-44.3 |
62.8 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
-6.4 |
5.4 |
3.8 |
-4.8 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
Durable Goods |
-31.2 |
-46.2 |
262.7 |
-9.3 |
-8.0 |
-4.0 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
-5.1 |
7.1 |
0.7 |
5.1 |
-2.7 |
1.2 |
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Business Investment |
-1.9 |
-51.6 |
26.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
8.1 |
7.0 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
-11.2 |
2.5 |
5.1 |
-11.1 |
6.1 |
3.9 |
Non-Res. Structures |
6.9 |
-49.8 |
-1.2 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
8.2 |
6.4 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
-9.3 |
-1.2 |
5.0 |
-14.0 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-10.9 |
-53.3 |
65.1 |
4.5 |
6.1 |
7.9 |
7.7 |
5.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
-13.2 |
6.5 |
5.2 |
-8.0 |
6.9 |
3.9 |
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Residential Investment |
-1.4 |
-47.7 |
187.3 |
1.5 |
-7.2 |
-5.3 |
-2.4 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
3.4 |
5.9 |
0.7 |
10.7 |
-3.3 |
1.5 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-0.3 |
-12.7 |
15.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
-0.1 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
Final Domestic Demand |
-6.1 |
-38.4 |
50.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
-4.6 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
-3.0 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
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Exports |
-6.6 |
-56.7 |
71.8 |
1.8 |
3.5 |
12.5 |
9.3 |
8.0 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
-10.1 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
-8.3 |
8.3 |
3.0 |
Imports |
-9.3 |
-65.0 |
113.7 |
1.9 |
3.7 |
11.4 |
9.8 |
7.2 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
-12.3 |
7.7 |
5.2 |
-8.8 |
8.0 |
3.2 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
-0.3 |
-35.7 |
-30.8 |
-28.5 |
-26.0 |
-9.5 |
-1.5 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
-23.8 |
-8.9 |
3.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-4.1 |
-33.7 |
49.8 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
-2.6 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
-0.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-55.5 |
-28.0 |
-30.1 |
-26.5 |
-27.7 |
-27.9 |
-30.1 |
-30.0 |
-30.6 |
-31.2 |
-31.8 |
-32.8 |
-35.0 |
-28.9 |
-31.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.4 |
-1.4 |
-1.3 |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
-1.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
-27.8 |
-54.8 |
182.9 |
-22.0 |
10.0 |
35.0 |
15.0 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
-10.5 |
14.3 |
8.2 |
-7.9 |
17.1 |
4.0 |
% of GDP |
11.8 |
11.0 |
12.8 |
11.9 |
12.1 |
12.7 |
12.9 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
11.9 |
12.7 |
12.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
0.7 |
-0.9 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
Nominal GDP |
-10.4 |
-40.5 |
55.2 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
10.8 |
8.7 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
-5.1 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
-3.7 |
7.2 |
4.4 |
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Labour Force |
-3.3 |
-17.1 |
21.7 |
4.0 |
0.8 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
-1.2 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
Employment |
-5.8 |
-38.4 |
39.2 |
10.0 |
2.1 |
6.7 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
-5.2 |
5.4 |
2.4 |
-2.9 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
-282 |
-2147 |
1440 |
439 |
97 |
305 |
200 |
133 |
75 |
69 |
71 |
65 |
-988 |
971 |
454 |
-550 |
734 |
280 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.3 |
13.0 |
10.0 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
7.5 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
9.5 |
7.3 |
6.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
5.9 |
52.3 |
-12.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
-6.2 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
10.2 |
0.8 |
2.8 |
9.3 |
0.7 |
3.0 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
5.9 |
27.5 |
14.6 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
10.3 |
9.2 |
8.4 |
7.9 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
15.6 |
10.5 |
7.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.8 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
209 |
191 |
238 |
213 |
212 |
213 |
213 |
215 |
213 |
208 |
206 |
205 |
213 |
213 |
208 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
13.1 |
3.2 |
16.1 |
14.2 |
7.1 |
10.5 |
-6.0 |
-6.0 |
-1.1 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
11.7 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
14.2 |
-6.0 |
1.8 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-1.8 |
-1.5 |
-1.0 |
-0.7 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
-1.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2020 |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8
most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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