U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless
Otherwise Indicated |
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
19F |
20F |
21F |
19F |
20F |
21F |
Real GDP |
3.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
1.1 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
Durable Goods |
0.3 |
13.0 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
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Business Investment |
4.4 |
-0.6 |
-2.4 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
Non-Res. Structures |
4.0 |
-9.4 |
-8.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
-3.4 |
-1.1 |
2.4 |
-3.8 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
Equipment & IPP* |
4.6 |
2.0 |
-0.6 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
1.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
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Residential Investment |
-1.1 |
-2.9 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
-2.2 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
Govt. Expenditure |
2.9 |
4.5 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.8 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
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Exports |
4.2 |
-5.8 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
Imports |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
116.0 |
69.0 |
75.2 |
65.0 |
39.1 |
36.1 |
36.5 |
35.9 |
37.4 |
37.2 |
37.1 |
37.5 |
81.3 |
36.9 |
37.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
2.6 |
3.0 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-522 |
-473 |
-509 |
-530 |
-541 |
-561 |
-577 |
-596 |
-613 |
-632 |
-650 |
-671 |
-508 |
-569 |
-641 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.5 |
-2.2 |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.8 |
-2.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
-14.3 |
22.8 |
3.9 |
-0.7 |
-3.9 |
-1.6 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
0.8 |
3.3 |
% of GDP |
9.5 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
9.8 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.4 |
9.4 |
9.8 |
9.5 |
9.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
Nominal GDP |
3.9 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
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Labor Force |
0.5 |
-1.0 |
2.4 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
Employment |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
617 |
438 |
390 |
325 |
340 |
510 |
103 |
157 |
233 |
278 |
276 |
264 |
2,216 |
1,362 |
942 |
1,770 |
1,110 |
1,051 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
4.9 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
8.5 |
8.0 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
7.6 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.21 |
1.26 |
1.21 |
1.22 |
1.23 |
1.23 |
1.24 |
1.25 |
1.26 |
1.27 |
1.28 |
1.28 |
1.23 |
1.24 |
1.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2019. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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