| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 19F | 20F | 21F | 19F | 20F | 21F | |
| Real GDP | 0.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Durable Goods | 5.3 | -1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Business Investment | 11.1 | -13.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | -2.5 | 1.5 | 3.9 | -0.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Non-Res. Structures | -3.0 | -1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | -5.1 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -0.6 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 25.9 | -23.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| Residential Investment | -3.9 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 3.2 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Exports | -3.3 | 13.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Imports | 8.7 | -4.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | 17.9 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 2.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -66.5 | -25.5 | -30.9 | -31.0 | -33.0 | -33.5 | -35.5 | -36.1 | -36.4 | -36.8 | -37.0 | -36.9 | -38.5 | -34.5 | -36.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.0 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | 14.1 | 28.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| % of GDP | 12.1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | 5.7 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Labour Force | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Employment | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 133 | 138 | 40 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 381 | 148 | 123 | 337 | 119 | 123 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 3.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 187 | 224 | 225 | 218 | 203 | 204 | 204 | 205 | 207 | 210 | 211 | 208 | 213 | 204 | 209 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | -4.0 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2019. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||