2019

2020

2021

Q1

Q2

Q3*

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Canada

Overnight Target Rate

1.75

1.50

1.25

3-mth T-Bill Rate

1.67

1.66

1.63

1.27

1.15

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.55

1.47

1.60

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.52

1.39

1.46

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.62

1.46

1.43

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

1.89

1.68

1.59

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.15

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.07

-0.01

-0.17

0.10

-0.17

0.20

0.25

U.S.

Fed Funds Target Rate

2.50

2.00

1.75

3-mth T-Bill Rate

2.35

2.08

1.89

1.60

1.73

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.27

1.75

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.23

1.76

1.66

1.60

1.70

1.75

1.85

1.95

2.05

2.15

2.25

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.41

2.00

1.79

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.81

2.52

2.24

2.25

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.14

0.25

0.04

0.10

0.04

0.20

Canada-U.S. Spreads

Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread

-0.68

-0.42

-0.26

-0.33

-0.45

-0.26

-0.45

-0.58

Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread

-0.79

-0.54

-0.35

-0.30

-0.35

-0.30

-0.35

-0.40

-0.45

-0.50

F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at September 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rates as at September 18, 2019 with the exception of policy rates.

Interest Rate Outlook
	2019				2020				2021
	Q1	Q2	Q3*	Q4F	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F
Canada
Overnight Target Rate	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.50	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate	1.67	1.66	1.63	1.27	1.15	1.15	1.15	1.15	1.15	1.15	1.15	1.15
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.55	1.47	1.60	1.30	1.30	1.35	1.40	1.45	1.50	1.55	1.60	1.65
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.52	1.39	1.46	1.40	1.40	1.45	1.50	1.55	1.60	1.65	1.70	1.75
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.62	1.46	1.43	1.40	1.40	1.50	1.60	1.70	1.75	1.80	1.85	1.90
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield	1.89	1.68	1.59	1.50	1.50	1.60	1.70	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.10	2.15
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread	0.07	-0.01	-0.17	0.10	0.10	-0.17	0.20	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25
U.S.
Fed Funds Target Rate	2.50	2.50	2.00	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate	2.35	2.08	1.89	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.73
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.27	1.75	1.75	1.60	1.60	1.65	1.70	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.10	2.20
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.23	1.76	1.66	1.60	1.60	1.70	1.75	1.85	1.95	2.05	2.15	2.25
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.41	2.00	1.79	1.70	1.70	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.10	2.20	2.30	2.40
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.81	2.52	2.24	2.25	2.25	2.30	2.40	2.50	2.60	2.65	2.70	2.75
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread	0.14	0.25	0.04	0.10	0.10	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
Canada-U.S. Spreads
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread	-0.68	-0.42	-0.26	-0.33	-0.45	-0.26	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45	-0.58
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread	-0.79	-0.54	-0.35	-0.30	-0.30	-0.35	-0.30	-0.30	-0.35	-0.40	-0.45	-0.50
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at September 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rates as at September 18, 2019 with the exception of policy rates.