Interest Rate Outlook | ||||||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1* | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Fed Funds Target Rate | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 1.70 | 1.89 | 2.15 | 2.40 | 2.39 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.27 | 2.52 | 2.81 | 2.48 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.56 | 2.73 | 2.94 | 2.51 | 2.42 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.74 | 2.85 | 3.05 | 2.69 | 2.61 | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.97 | 2.98 | 3.19 | 3.02 | 3.01 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as
at March 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at March 13, 2019 with the exception of policy rate. |