U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless
Otherwise Indicated |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
Real GDP |
2.2 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
0.5 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
Durable Goods |
-2.0 |
8.6 |
3.7 |
5.9 |
-0.8 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.7 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
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Business Investment |
11.5 |
8.7 |
2.5 |
6.2 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
7.0 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
7.2 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
Non-Res. Structures |
13.9 |
14.5 |
-3.4 |
-4.2 |
-0.4 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
Equipment & IPP* |
10.8 |
7.1 |
4.3 |
9.4 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
5.4 |
3.6 |
7.9 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
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Residential Investment |
-3.4 |
-1.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
4.3 |
1.5 |
3.3 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
1.4 |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
1.4 |
-3.0 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
Govt. Expenditure |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.9 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
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Exports |
3.6 |
9.3 |
-4.9 |
1.6 |
3.2 |
5.1 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
2.2 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
Imports |
3.0 |
-0.6 |
9.3 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
5.1 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
30.3 |
-36.8 |
89.8 |
97.1 |
81.0 |
69.4 |
72.1 |
75.6 |
76.7 |
73.5 |
69.3 |
67.5 |
45.1 |
74.5 |
71.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
1.9 |
5.4 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
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International Current |
|
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-487 |
-405 |
-499 |
-539 |
-547 |
-559 |
-580 |
-604 |
-626 |
-647 |
-668 |
-690 |
-483 |
-573 |
-658 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.4 |
-2.0 |
-2.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-2.4 |
-2.7 |
-2.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
|
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|
including IVA&CCA |
5.0 |
12.5 |
14.7 |
-6.8 |
-0.1 |
7.6 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
7.4 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
% of GDP |
10.9 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
10.8 |
10.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
Nominal GDP |
4.3 |
7.6 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
5.2 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
5.3 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
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Labor Force |
2.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
Employment |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
641 |
694 |
667 |
648 |
516 |
464 |
376 |
415 |
341 |
529 |
38 |
191 |
2,453 |
2,149 |
1,420 |
2,650 |
1,771 |
1,099 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
7.0 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
5.7 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
7.2 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.32 |
1.26 |
1.23 |
1.17 |
1.22 |
1.23 |
1.24 |
1.25 |
1.26 |
1.27 |
1.27 |
1.28 |
1.24 |
1.24 |
1.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2019. |
*Intellectual Property Products. **Non-farm business sector. |
Note:
2018Q4 Current Account and Corporate Profits are forecasts, not actual data
as in the rest of the table. This data has been delayed due to the government
shutdown. |
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|
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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