U.S. Economic Outlook
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
                           2018 2019 2020 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 18 19F 20F 18 19F 20F
 Real GDP 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.6 1.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 3.1 2.1 1.8
                                     
 Consumer Expenditure 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.8 0.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.1 2.1
Durable Goods             -2.0 8.6 3.7 5.9 -0.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 5.7 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.3 3.7
                                     
 Business Investment 11.5 8.7 2.5 6.2 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 7.0 4.2 3.4 7.2 3.6 3.3
Non-Res. Structures 13.9 14.5 -3.4 -4.2 -0.4 1.3 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.0 0.2 2.7 4.8 1.5 2.9
Equipment & IPP* 10.8 7.1 4.3 9.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.5 7.5 5.4 3.6 7.9 4.2 3.4
                                     
 Residential Investment -3.4 -1.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.0 4.3 1.5 3.3 1.1 0.0 -0.4 1.4 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 -3.0 1.5 0.6
 Govt. Expenditure 1.5 2.5 2.6 0.4 2.5 3.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 0.6
 Final Domestic Demand 1.9 4.0 2.9 2.6 1.3 3.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.2 2.0
                                     
 Exports                   3.6 9.3 -4.9 1.6 3.2 5.1 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.6 3.9 3.0 5.2 2.2 4.8 4.9
 Imports                   3.0 -0.6 9.3 2.7 2.4 4.0 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.0 5.1 3.5 4.3 5.0
                                     
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 30.3 -36.8 89.8 97.1 81.0 69.4 72.1 75.6 76.7 73.5 69.3 67.5 45.1 74.5 71.7 -- -- --
 Final Sales 1.9 5.4 1.0 2.5 1.4 3.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9
                                     
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -487 -405 -499 -539 -547 -559 -580 -604 -626 -647 -668 -690 -483 -573 -658 -- -- --
% of GDP  -2.4 -2.0 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -2.4 -2.7 -2.9 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 including IVA&CCA 5.0 12.5 14.7 -6.8 -0.1 7.6 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.1 7.4 2.7 1.5 6.0 2.5 1.2
% of GDP  10.9 11.0 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.8 10.5 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3
 Nominal GDP  4.3 7.6 4.9 4.6 3.5 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 5.3 4.1 4.1
                                     
 Labor Force 2.5 0.6 0.6 2.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.8
 Employment  1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  641 694 667 648 516 464 376 415 341 529 38 191    2,453    2,149    1,420    2,650    1,771    1,099
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  7.0 3.8 4.2 5.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 5.0 4.4 4.3 5.2 4.1 4.2
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  7.2 6.7 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.32 1.26 1.23 1.17 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.24 1.24 1.27 -- -- --
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 0.9 1.4
                                     
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2019.
*Intellectual Property Products. **Non-farm business sector.
Note: 2018Q4 Current Account and Corporate Profits are forecasts, not actual data as in the rest of the table. This data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.  
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.