| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 18 | 19F | 20F | 18 | 19F | 20F | |
| Real GDP | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Durable Goods | 0.7 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -2.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Business Investment | 8.3 | -1.2 | -10.3 | -6.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | -0.7 | 4.0 | -2.5 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| Non-Res. Structures | -2.2 | -3.2 | -8.0 | -15.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -7.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 20.7 | 1.0 | -12.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Residential Investment | -9.7 | 0.6 | -5.5 | -14.7 | -2.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | -2.3 | -3.5 | 2.4 | -7.5 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Exports | 1.0 | 14.6 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | -8.6 | -1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2007 $Bn) | 22.4 | 16.9 | 3.5 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 13.8 | 5.8 | 5.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | -3.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -69.0 | -63.4 | -40.4 | -61.9 | -45.9 | -41.3 | -40.7 | -41.6 | -42.1 | -43.1 | -43.8 | -44.2 | -58.7 | -42.4 | -43.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.1 | -2.9 | -1.8 | -2.8 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | 1.9 | 9.4 | 14.2 | -38.1 | 17.5 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 5.2 | -5.8 | 8.0 | 5.4 |
| % of GDP | 12.8 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 12.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Nominal GDP | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | -2.7 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Labour Force | -0.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Employment | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 13 | 47 | 62 | 100 | 135 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 238 | 284 | 122 | 222 | 207 | 130 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)** | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 224 | 218 | 197 | 217 | 190 | 201 | 200 | 196 | 195 | 195 | 195 | 195 | 214 | 197 | 195 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | -4.6 | -6.8 | 0.5 | -3.4 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -2.8 | -0.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -3.6 | -1.2 | 2.8 | -3.4 | -0.9 | 3.4 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2019. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| *Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||