Interest Rate Outlook

2018

2019

2020

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2*

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Fed Funds Target Rate

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.25

2.00

3-mth T-Bill Rate

1.70

1.89

2.15

2.40

2.35

2.14

1.98

1.85

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.27

2.52

2.81

2.48

2.27

1.84

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.56

2.73

2.94

2.51

2.23

1.83

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.35

2.40

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.74

2.85

3.05

2.69

2.41

2.08

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.45

2.50

2.55

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.97

2.98

3.19

3.02

2.81

2.59

2.45

2.55

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.47

0.33

0.24

0.21

0.14

0.24

0.25

0.30

0.35

F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at June 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at June 14, 2019 with the exception of policy rate.