U.S.
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless
Otherwise Indicated |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
Real GDP |
2.2 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
0.5 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
Durable Goods |
-2.0 |
8.6 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
-4.6 |
11.5 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
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Business Investment |
11.5 |
8.7 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
2.3 |
-0.7 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
6.9 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
7.0 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
Non-Res. Structures |
13.9 |
14.5 |
-3.4 |
-3.9 |
1.7 |
-4.9 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
5.0 |
-0.4 |
2.0 |
4.9 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
Equipment & IPP* |
10.8 |
7.1 |
4.3 |
8.4 |
2.4 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
7.5 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
7.6 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
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Residential Investment |
-3.4 |
-1.4 |
-3.5 |
-4.7 |
-3.5 |
-1.1 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
-0.3 |
-2.6 |
0.4 |
-3.3 |
-1.3 |
1.3 |
Govt. Expenditure |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
-0.4 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.9 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
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Exports |
3.6 |
9.3 |
-4.9 |
1.8 |
4.8 |
-3.8 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
Imports |
3.0 |
-0.6 |
9.3 |
2.0 |
-2.5 |
-3.3 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
-0.3 |
3.4 |
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Change in Private |
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Inventories |
30.3 |
-36.8 |
89.8 |
96.8 |
125.5 |
86.9 |
77.9 |
65.5 |
62.9 |
54.5 |
53.7 |
54.5 |
45.0 |
89.0 |
56.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
1.9 |
5.4 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-496 |
-414 |
-506 |
-538 |
-551 |
-514 |
-501 |
-503 |
-500 |
-504 |
-510 |
-516 |
-488 |
-517 |
-508 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-2.5 |
-2.0 |
-2.5 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.4 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-2.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
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including IVA&CCA |
5.0 |
12.5 |
14.7 |
-1.7 |
-10.8 |
11.6 |
4.4 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
7.8 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
7.4 |
1.2 |
2.9 |
% of GDP |
10.9 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
11.0 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
Nominal GDP |
4.3 |
7.6 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
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Labor Force |
2.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
Employment |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
641 |
694 |
667 |
649 |
629 |
445 |
328 |
325 |
353 |
542 |
44 |
141 |
2,453 |
2,202 |
1,336 |
2,651 |
1,727 |
1,080 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
7.0 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
3.6 |
4.6 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
7.2 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.32 |
1.26 |
1.23 |
1.19 |
1.20 |
1.21 |
1.20 |
1.19 |
1.19 |
1.21 |
1.23 |
1.24 |
1.25 |
1.20 |
1.22 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2019. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. |
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