| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 18 | 19F | 20F | 18 | 19F | 20F | |
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 0.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Durable Goods | -2.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -4.6 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| Business Investment | 11.5 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 13.9 | 14.5 | -3.4 | -3.9 | 1.7 | -4.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 5.0 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 10.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Residential Investment | -3.4 | -1.4 | -3.5 | -4.7 | -3.5 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | -0.3 | -2.6 | 0.4 | -3.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 1.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Exports | 3.6 | 9.3 | -4.9 | 1.8 | 4.8 | -3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Imports | 3.0 | -0.6 | 9.3 | 2.0 | -2.5 | -3.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | -0.3 | 3.4 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | 30.3 | -36.8 | 89.8 | 96.8 | 125.5 | 86.9 | 77.9 | 65.5 | 62.9 | 54.5 | 53.7 | 54.5 | 45.0 | 89.0 | 56.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 1.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -496 | -414 | -506 | -538 | -551 | -514 | -501 | -503 | -500 | -504 | -510 | -516 | -488 | -517 | -508 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | 5.0 | 12.5 | 14.7 | -1.7 | -10.8 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| % of GDP | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Nominal GDP | 4.3 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Labor Force | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Employment | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 641 | 694 | 667 | 649 | 629 | 445 | 328 | 325 | 353 | 542 | 44 | 141 | 2,453 | 2,202 | 1,336 | 2,651 | 1,727 | 1,080 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 7.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.32 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.22 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2019. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||