Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Annual
Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
18 |
19F |
20F |
Real GDP |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
1.3 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
Durable Goods |
-0.1 |
-1.8 |
-0.6 |
-1.9 |
4.9 |
-1.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
-1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
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Business Investment |
8.8 |
-0.7 |
-10.6 |
-6.4 |
10.5 |
-0.5 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
3.3 |
-2.5 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-1.3 |
-4.1 |
-8.6 |
-14.2 |
-2.6 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
-0.9 |
-4.0 |
2.8 |
-7.2 |
1.2 |
3.0 |
Equipment & IPP* |
20.9 |
2.9 |
-12.4 |
2.2 |
24.0 |
-2.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
5.6 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
6.7 |
4.3 |
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Residential Investment |
-8.4 |
-0.3 |
-3.2 |
-10.4 |
-6.1 |
8.5 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
3.5 |
-5.7 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
Govt. Expenditure |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
3.0 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.4 |
1.6 |
-0.1 |
-1.0 |
3.4 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
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Exports |
3.6 |
12.0 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
-4.1 |
5.8 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
4.1 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
Imports |
4.2 |
6.2 |
-8.9 |
-0.7 |
7.7 |
0.2 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2007 $Bn) |
16.9 |
14.6 |
6.0 |
13.4 |
16.1 |
9.7 |
9.3 |
9.1 |
8.9 |
8.9 |
8.1 |
7.4 |
12.7 |
11.0 |
8.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
1.2 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
-2.3 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-65.5 |
-61.5 |
-40.6 |
-66.5 |
-69.4 |
-51.8 |
-50.0 |
-50.4 |
-50.9 |
-51.4 |
-52.0 |
-52.4 |
-58.5 |
-55.4 |
-51.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.0 |
-2.8 |
-1.8 |
-3.0 |
-3.1 |
-2.3 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.6 |
-2.4 |
-2.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
1.5 |
10.3 |
13.9 |
-37.9 |
6.9 |
9.0 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
0.5 |
-2.6 |
5.0 |
-5.7 |
6.2 |
4.9 |
% of GDP |
12.8 |
13.0 |
13.3 |
11.9 |
11.9 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
12.7 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
Nominal GDP |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
-3.1 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
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Labour Force |
-0.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
Employment |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
13 |
47 |
62 |
100 |
133 |
145 |
19 |
26 |
29 |
29 |
31 |
31 |
238 |
376 |
139 |
222 |
323 |
119 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
1.8 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
5.3 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
1.9 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
224 |
218 |
197 |
217 |
187 |
215 |
193 |
195 |
195 |
196 |
196 |
196 |
214 |
198 |
196 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
-4.5 |
-6.7 |
0.6 |
-3.4 |
-4.0 |
0.2 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
-3.5 |
-2.0 |
3.2 |
-3.4 |
-1.1 |
3.0 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
-0.9 |
-0.2 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
-0.7 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2019. |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8
most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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