Interest Rate Outlook
  2018 2019 2020
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2* Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Canada                      
Overnight Target Rate  1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate  1.10 1.26 1.59 1.64 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.77 1.91 2.21 1.86 1.55 1.38 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.96 2.06 2.33 1.88 1.52 1.33 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.09 2.17 2.42 1.96 1.62 1.44 1.55 1.65 1.75 1.85 1.90 1.95
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.23 2.20 2.42 2.18 1.89 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.15 2.20
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.32 0.26 0.21 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.20
U.S.                         
Fed Funds Target Rate  1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
3-mth T-Bill Rate  1.70 1.89 2.15 2.40 2.35 2.14 1.98 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.27 2.52 2.81 2.48 2.27 1.84 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.56 2.73 2.94 2.51 2.23 1.83 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.35 2.40
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.74 2.85 3.05 2.69 2.41 2.08 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.97 2.98 3.19 3.02 2.81 2.59 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.47 0.33 0.24 0.21 0.14 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Canada-U.S. Spreads                
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread -0.60 -0.63 -0.56 -0.76 -0.68 -0.47 -0.33 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread -0.65 -0.68 -0.63 -0.73 -0.79 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at June 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at June 14, 2019 with the exception of policy rates.