Interest Rate Outlook | ||||||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2* | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Canada | ||||||||||||
Overnight Target Rate | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 1.10 | 1.26 | 1.59 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 1.77 | 1.91 | 2.21 | 1.86 | 1.55 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.75 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 1.96 | 2.06 | 2.33 | 1.88 | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.80 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.42 | 1.96 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.95 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.23 | 2.20 | 2.42 | 2.18 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
U.S. | ||||||||||||
Fed Funds Target Rate | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 1.70 | 1.89 | 2.15 | 2.40 | 2.35 | 2.14 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.27 | 2.52 | 2.81 | 2.48 | 2.27 | 1.84 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.56 | 2.73 | 2.94 | 2.51 | 2.23 | 1.83 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.40 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.74 | 2.85 | 3.05 | 2.69 | 2.41 | 2.08 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.55 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 2.97 | 2.98 | 3.19 | 3.02 | 2.81 | 2.59 | 2.45 | 2.55 | 2.65 | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
Canada-U.S. Spreads | ||||||||||||
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread | -0.60 | -0.63 | -0.56 | -0.76 | -0.68 | -0.47 | -0.33 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 |
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread | -0.65 | -0.68 | -0.63 | -0.73 | -0.79 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.60 | -0.60 | -0.60 |
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as
at June 2019. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at June 14, 2019 with the exception of policy rates. |