| U.S. Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 19F | 20F | 21F | 19F | 20F | 21F | |
| Real GDP | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Durable Goods | 0.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| Business Investment | 4.4 | -1.0 | -2.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 4.0 | -11.1 | -12.0 | -11.9 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -4.8 | -5.3 | 0.6 | -8.0 | -0.5 | 0.8 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Residential Investment | -1.1 | -2.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -1.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 2.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 1.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Exports | 4.2 | -5.7 | 0.9 | -3.3 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | -1.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Imports | -1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.7 | -0.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | 116.0 | 69.4 | 79.8 | 65.8 | 59.6 | 21.2 | 27.9 | 39.7 | 44.0 | 46.8 | 51.3 | 54.9 | 82.7 | 37.1 | 49.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -545 | -513 | -506 | -528 | -558 | -576 | -614 | -650 | -683 | -713 | -736 | -758 | -523 | -599 | -723 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -3.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| including IVA&CCA | -14.3 | 16.0 | 0.9 | 9.4 | -3.2 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| % of GDP | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Nominal GDP | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Labor Force | 0.5 | -1.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Employment | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 617 | 438 | 511 | 565 | 398 | 512 | 169 | 215 | 286 | 276 | 260 | 251 | 2,336 | 1,709 | 1,060 | 2,131 | 1,294 | 1,073 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 8.5 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 6.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 1.34 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per hour** (y/y) | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2019. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||