Canadian Economic Outlook
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
                           2019 2020 2021 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 19F 20F 21F 19F 20F 21F
 Real GDP 0.8 3.5 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8
                         
 Consumer Expenditure 2.5 0.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6
Durable Goods             5.0 -1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.8
                                     
 Business Investment 11.1 -5.1 9.0 3.7 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 0.4 3.0 3.8 4.5 2.7 4.4
Non-Res. Structures 4.2 4.4 11.1 3.6 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.7 1.2 3.7 3.4 5.8 2.5 3.8
Equipment & IPP* 18.1 -13.9 6.7 3.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.1 5.4 5.2 4.9 -0.5 2.3 4.2 3.0 2.9 4.9
                         
 Residential Investment -2.7 5.5 13.3 5.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 -0.4 5.1 3.1 5.1 3.5 2.9
 Govt. Expenditure 3.3 0.9 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.8 0.9 1.0
 Final Domestic Demand 3.3 0.3 3.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.9
                                     
 Exports                   -3.3 12.9 -1.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.7
 Imports                   8.1 -3.5 0.1 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 0.5 1.2 2.7 1.2 2.2 3.1
                         
 Change in Non-farm                                    
 Inventories (2012 $Bn) 17.7 10.7 -0.6 -3.5 -2.0 -3.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 6.1 -2.9 -2.3 -- -- --
 Final Sales 2.1 1.8 4.9 3.1 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.5 1.8 3.0 1.8 1.9
                         
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -67.3 -27.0 -39.4 -40.3 -42.3 -43.6 -45.2 -46.7 -48.1 -49.9 -51.5 -52.8 -43.5 -44.4 -50.6 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.0 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corp. Profits 9.2 36.0 -18.9 2.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.8 -0.2 1.2 3.9 5.4 2.7 4.1
% of GDP  12.3 13.0 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.2 12.2 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 1.1 1.9 1.4 2.9 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.9 1.9 2.0
 Nominal GDP  5.6 8.1 1.6 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.7 3.6 3.8
                           
 Labour Force 3.3 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.8
 Employment  2.9 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.8 0.8 0.8
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  133 138 56 16 31 37 39 40 41 42 40 39 386 162 160 342 147 162
 Unemployment Rate (%)  5.8 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  4.4 7.3 3.8 5.3 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.6 4.5 3.7 5.2 4.0 3.6
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  2.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0
 CPIX (y/y)** 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0
 BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts ('000s) 187 224 223 202 208 205 205 206 208 211 212 210 209 206 210 -- -- --
 Home Prices (y/y) -4.0 1.7 3.8 6.9 13.6 9.5 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 7.8 3.1 6.9 4.0 2.5
 Real GDP / worker (y/y) -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.4 0.8 0.9 -0.1 0.9 0.9
                                     
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2019. 
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.