Canadian
Economic Outlook |
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise
Indicated |
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
Annual
Average |
4th
Qtr/4th Qtr |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
19F |
20F |
21F |
19F |
20F |
21F |
Real GDP |
0.8 |
3.5 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
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Consumer Expenditure |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
Durable Goods |
5.0 |
-1.7 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
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Business Investment |
11.1 |
-5.1 |
9.0 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
0.4 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
2.7 |
4.4 |
Non-Res. Structures |
4.2 |
4.4 |
11.1 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
1.2 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
5.8 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
Equipment & IPP* |
18.1 |
-13.9 |
6.7 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
-0.5 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
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Residential Investment |
-2.7 |
5.5 |
13.3 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
-0.4 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
5.1 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
Govt. Expenditure |
3.3 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
Final Domestic Demand |
3.3 |
0.3 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
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Exports |
-3.3 |
12.9 |
-1.5 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
Imports |
8.1 |
-3.5 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
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Change in Non-farm |
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Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
17.7 |
10.7 |
-0.6 |
-3.5 |
-2.0 |
-3.5 |
-3.3 |
-2.8 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.3 |
6.1 |
-2.9 |
-2.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
2.1 |
1.8 |
4.9 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
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International Current |
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Account Balance ($Bn) |
-67.3 |
-27.0 |
-39.4 |
-40.3 |
-42.3 |
-43.6 |
-45.2 |
-46.7 |
-48.1 |
-49.9 |
-51.5 |
-52.8 |
-43.5 |
-44.4 |
-50.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.0 |
-1.2 |
-1.7 |
-1.7 |
-1.8 |
-1.8 |
-1.9 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-1.9 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
9.2 |
36.0 |
-18.9 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
-0.2 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
% of GDP |
12.3 |
13.0 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
1.1 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
Nominal GDP |
5.6 |
8.1 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
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Labour Force |
3.3 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
Employment |
2.9 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
133 |
138 |
56 |
16 |
31 |
37 |
39 |
40 |
41 |
42 |
40 |
39 |
386 |
162 |
160 |
342 |
147 |
162 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.8 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
4.4 |
7.3 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
2.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.6 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
187 |
224 |
223 |
202 |
208 |
205 |
205 |
206 |
208 |
211 |
212 |
210 |
209 |
206 |
210 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
-4.0 |
1.7 |
3.8 |
6.9 |
13.6 |
9.5 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
7.8 |
3.1 |
6.9 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
-0.4 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
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F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2019. |
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. |
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8
most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim,
CPI-median, and CPI-common. |
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. |
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