2018

2019

2020

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4*

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

Fed Funds Target Rate

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3-mth T-Bill Rate

1.73

1.93

2.19

2.38

2.53

2.78

2.90

2-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.27

2.52

2.81

2.77

2.85

2.90

2.95

5-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.56

2.73

2.94

2.77

2.90

2.95

3.00

10-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.74

2.85

3.05

2.91

3.05

3.10

3.15

30-yr Govt. Bond Yield

2.97

2.98

3.19

3.15

3.30

3.35

3.40

10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread

0.47

0.33

0.24

0.14

0.20

F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at December 2018. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at December 12, 2018 with the exception of policy rates.

Interest Rate Outlook
	2018				2019				2020
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4*	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F	Q1F	Q2F	Q3F	Q4F
Fed Funds Target Rate	1.75	2.00	2.25	2.50	2.50	2.75	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
3-mth T-Bill Rate	1.73	1.93	2.19	2.38	2.53	2.78	2.90	2.90	2.90	2.90	2.90	2.90
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.27	2.52	2.81	2.77	2.85	2.90	2.95	2.95	2.95	2.95	2.95	2.95
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.56	2.73	2.94	2.77	2.90	2.95	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.74	2.85	3.05	2.91	3.05	3.10	3.15	3.15	3.15	3.15	3.15	3.15
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield	2.97	2.98	3.19	3.15	3.30	3.35	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.40
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread	0.47	0.33	0.24	0.14	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
F: Forecast by TD Bank Group as at December 2018. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics. * Spot rate as at December 12, 2018 with the exception of policy rates.