U.S. Economic Outlook
Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
                           2018 2019 2020 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 18F 19F 20F 18F 19F 20F
 Real GDP 2.2 4.2 3.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.0 2.2 1.8
                                     
 Consumer Expenditure 0.5 3.8 3.6 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.2
Durable Goods             -2.0 8.6 3.9 5.4 2.9 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 5.7 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.4
                                     
 Business Investment 11.5 8.7 2.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 6.8 4.1 3.6 6.6 4.0 3.4
Non-Res. Structures 13.9 14.5 -1.7 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 5.5 2.7 3.1 6.7 3.1 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 10.8 7.1 3.8 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 7.2 4.6 3.8 6.6 4.3 3.5
                                     
 Residential Investment -3.4 -1.4 -2.6 -4.5 -1.9 1.8 1.5 3.5 3.0 1.9 1.7 3.0 -0.2 -1.0 2.5 -3.0 1.2 2.4
 Govt. Expenditure 1.5 2.5 2.6 4.0 3.1 2.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 1.7 2.7 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.5
 Final Domestic Demand 1.9 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.1
                                     
 Exports                   3.6 9.3 -4.4 2.9 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.4 5.6 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 5.4 2.7 5.8 4.7
 Imports                   3.0 -0.6 9.2 7.8 1.9 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.9 5.4 6.1 4.8 5.2 5.6
                                     
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 30.3 -36.8 86.6 94.3 70.7 72.4 83.5 81.7 77.3 72.3 67.7 66.1 43.6 77.1 70.8 -- -- --
 Final Sales 1.9 5.4 1.2 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.7 2.3 1.9
                                     
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -487 -406 -495 -563 -530 -552 -571 -585 -592 -602 -609 -612 -488 -559 -604 -- -- --
% of GDP  -2.4 -2.0 -2.4 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 including IVA&CCA 5.0 12.5 14.3 -1.3 10.7 3.7 2.7 1.1 1.4 2.5 2.8 3.6 7.8 5.9 2.2 7.5 4.5 2.6
% of GDP  10.9 11.0 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 10.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.5
 Nominal GDP  4.3 7.6 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.3 5.2 4.8 4.4 5.2 4.6 4.3
                                     
 Labor Force 2.8 0.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9
 Employment  1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  633 634 623 587 574 485 440 392 313 531 38 121    2,378    2,166    1,396    2,477    1,891    1,003
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.8 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  7.0 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  7.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.32 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.26 1.24 1.27 -- -- --
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4
                                     
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2018.
*Intellectual Property Products. **Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.