| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 18F | 19F | 20F | 18F | 19F | 20F | |
| Real GDP | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Durable Goods | 1.4 | 0.6 | -2.7 | -1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Business Investment | 14.1 | 0.6 | -6.9 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 5.7 | 0.3 | -5.2 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 23.9 | 1.0 | -8.5 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Residential Investment | -7.9 | -0.1 | -5.9 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | -3.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 2.2 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Exports | 2.3 | 13.0 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Imports | 4.7 | 5.9 | -7.8 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2007 $Bn) | 16.7 | 14.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | -0.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -69.3 | -66.7 | -41.4 | -49.1 | -45.2 | -43.5 | -43.0 | -44.3 | -45.9 | -47.0 | -48.0 | -47.6 | -56.6 | -44.0 | -47.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.2 | -3.0 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | 1.5 | 13.4 | 19.0 | -5.0 | -4.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
| % of GDP | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | 2.9 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Labour Force | -0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Employment | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 3.3 | 31.2 | 59.5 | 95.4 | 27.2 | 28.1 | 28.6 | 29.1 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 27.4 | 27.0 | 234 | 179 | 113 | 189 | 113 | 110 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 0.5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)** | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 225 | 219 | 197 | 207 | 199 | 198 | 197 | 196 | 196 | 195 | 196 | 196 | 212 | 198 | 196 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | -4.8 | -6.5 | 0.4 | -4.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -3.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | -4.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2018. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| *Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||