| Canadian Economic Outlook | ||||||||||||||||||
| Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | ||||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 20F | 21F | 22F | 20F | 21F | 22F | |
| Real GDP | -7.3 | -38.1 | 40.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -5.7 | 4.9 | 3.8 | -4.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 |
| Consumer Expenditure | -10.1 | -44.3 | 62.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | -6.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | -4.8 | 5.1 | 2.4 |
| Durable Goods | -31.2 | -46.2 | 262.7 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -4.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | -5.1 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 5.1 | -2.7 | 1.2 |
| Business Investment | -1.9 | -51.6 | 26.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -11.2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | -11.1 | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 6.9 | -49.8 | -1.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | -9.3 | -1.2 | 5.0 | -14.0 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -10.9 | -53.3 | 65.1 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -13.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | -8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 |
| Residential Investment | -1.4 | -47.7 | 187.3 | 1.5 | -7.2 | -5.3 | -2.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 10.7 | -3.3 | 1.5 |
| Govt. Expenditure | -0.3 | -12.7 | 15.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Final Domestic Demand | -6.1 | -38.4 | 50.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | -4.6 | 4.5 | 3.2 | -3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| Exports | -6.6 | -56.7 | 71.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | -10.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | -8.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 |
| Imports | -9.3 | -65.0 | 113.7 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | -12.3 | 7.7 | 5.2 | -8.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 |
| Change in Non-farm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | -0.3 | -35.7 | -30.8 | -28.5 | -26.0 | -9.5 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 | -23.8 | -8.9 | 3.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | -4.1 | -33.7 | 49.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | -2.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -55.5 | -28.0 | -30.1 | -26.5 | -27.7 | -27.9 | -30.1 | -30.0 | -30.6 | -31.2 | -31.8 | -32.8 | -35.0 | -28.9 | -31.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -2.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corp. Profits | -27.8 | -54.8 | 182.9 | -22.0 | 10.0 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | -10.5 | 14.3 | 8.2 | -7.9 | 17.1 | 4.0 |
| % of GDP | 11.8 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 12.9 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 0.7 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | -10.4 | -40.5 | 55.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | -5.1 | 7.1 | 5.9 | -3.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 |
| Labour Force | -3.3 | -17.1 | 21.7 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Employment | -5.8 | -38.4 | 39.2 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | -5.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | -2.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | -282 | -2147 | 1440 | 439 | 97 | 305 | 200 | 133 | 75 | 69 | 71 | 65 | -988 | 971 | 454 | -550 | 734 | 280 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 5.9 | 52.3 | -12.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -6.2 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 10.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 5.9 | 27.5 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 7.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| CPIX (y/y)** | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 209 | 191 | 238 | 213 | 212 | 213 | 213 | 215 | 213 | 208 | 206 | 205 | 213 | 213 | 208 | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | 13.1 | 3.2 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 10.5 | -6.0 | -6.0 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 11.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 14.2 | -6.0 | 1.8 |
| Real GDP / worker (y/y) | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 1.4 | -1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. | ||||||||||||||||||
| * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||